A Fictional Success Story
Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump declared a cease-fire in Yemen, claiming a diplomatic victory after two months of intense U.S. bombing. According to Trump, the Houthi leadership had “capitulated” and agreed to halt their attacks, thereby accomplishing the objectives of the American campaign. “They don’t wanna fight anymore,” Trump assured reporters, adding that the United States would now “honor that.”
Yet, upon closer scrutiny, the announcement resembles more a manufactured triumph than a genuine diplomatic breakthrough. Trump’s presentation of events—suggesting that the Houthis were coerced into peace through U.S. air power—conceals a far more sobering reality: the war achieved virtually none of its declared objectives and inflicted a disproportionate toll on civilians, all while deepening strategic risks for both the United States and its allies.
A War With No Justification
The official rationale for the airstrikes was to deter Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea, itself a reaction to Israel’s renewed siege and bombardment of Gaza. Notably, there had been no Houthi attacks on U.S. targets until after the United States began bombing Yemen. And yet, the cease-fire agreement Trump now touts contains no commitment by the Houthis to halt attacks on Israeli vessels—the very justification for U.S. intervention.
This raises a glaring contradiction: the United States entered a costly military campaign in order to stop one behavior (attacks on Israel), only to emerge with an agreement that fails to address that issue at all. In essence, the U.S. has merely returned to the status quo that existed before the first missile was launched.
Strategic Blowback and Escalating Risk
In fact, Houthi attacks on Israeli assets have continued, and by some measures, intensified. The group has expanded its operations beyond maritime targets to include direct strikes on Israeli territory. This expansion has exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s defense systems, raising broader concerns about the country’s preparedness in the event of war with more sophisticated adversaries.
Meanwhile, the cost of the operation for the United States has been staggering. Over $1 billion in munitions have been expended, and the Pentagon has openly expressed concern about depleted weapons stockpiles—particularly in the context of long-term strategic competition with China. In just over a week, the U.S. military lost two fighter jets, valued at $67 million each—one sliding off an aircraft carrier into the Red Sea, another destroyed in a landing mishap.
Political Fallout at Home
Domestically, the war proved a public relations and political disaster. The infamous “Signalgate” scandal—where war plans were mistakenly sent via unsecured communication to a journalist—sparked a wave of scrutiny and led to the resignation of Trump’s national security advisor. The episode also cast a spotlight on the Trump administration’s chaotic management of military affairs, reigniting concerns over competence and accountability.
Moreover, prominent voices within Trump’s own MAGA base began to break ranks. Figures such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Steve Bannon criticized the Yemen campaign, highlighting the dissonance between Trump’s anti-war campaign rhetoric and his actions as commander-in-chief. The disillusionment exposed rifts within the right-wing populist coalition that had previously stood united behind Trump.
A Turning Point in U.S.-Israel Relations?
Though the cease-fire brought a momentary end to active U.S. strikes in Yemen, its geopolitical implications may prove more lasting. Most striking is the apparent marginalization of Israel from the deal. Israeli officials expressed dismay that Trump had neither consulted them nor included their interests in the agreement. Reports indicated that Trump bypassed Jerusalem entirely in the negotiations, leading Israeli commentators and lawmakers to accuse him of “abandoning” the country.
This episode adds to a growing list of Trump’s recent actions suggesting an evolving posture toward Israel: declining to include the country on an upcoming Middle East trip, floating a unilateral Gaza cease-fire, and reviving efforts to reenter the Iran nuclear deal. While Trump’s relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has historically been close, these recent developments suggest a potential recalibration—at least temporarily.
Still, observers should be cautious. Trump is notorious for policy U-turns and contradictory positions. He previously pressured Netanyahu into accepting a cease-fire in Gaza, only to reverse course weeks later. Whether his current stance signals a strategic pivot or a momentary divergence remains to be seen.
A Pyrrhic Cease-Fire
Ultimately, the Yemen intervention may be remembered not for its military outcomes, but for the contradictions it exposed. It failed to stop Houthi attacks on Israel, strained U.S. resources, and incurred massive political damage at home—all while fueling regional instability and civilian suffering.
What the Trump administration heralds as a triumph of “peace through strength” is, in fact, a cautionary tale: a foreign policy blunder that achieved none of its objectives, undermined its own rationale, and highlighted the dangerous unpredictability of war-by-impulse leadership.
If there is any lesson to be drawn, it is that endless military adventurism—no matter how it is framed—remains as costly and futile as ever. And in this case, it may have also marked the first visible fracture in the decades-long consensus around unconditional U.S. support for Israeli regional hegemony.