The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 represents a significant milestone in Syria’s long and tumultuous modern history. It follows years of brutal conflict, foreign interventions, and internal divisions, yet the latest developments pose more questions than answers. While the removal of Assad signals a potential end to decades of oppressive rule, the circumstances of his downfall and the roles of various factions and foreign powers underscore a reality fraught with risks, particularly for Syria’s minorities, including the Kurds, women, and progressive movements.
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime
The overthrow of Assad was driven by a surprise military offensive spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda. Within days, HTS captured strategic cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Assad, reportedly fleeing to Moscow, left behind a nation in disarray. However, this “victory” for the opposition reflects broader regional and international power struggles rather than the aspirations of ordinary Syrians.
HTS’s rapid takeover is emblematic of a Syria where competing factions, from Islamist groups to Kurdish-led forces, vie for control amid the absence of cohesive state authority. While HTS’s rise may seem like a blow to Assad’s autocracy, its hardline Islamist governance model poses severe risks for minorities and women. Arbitrary detentions, public executions, and crackdowns on civil liberties in HTS-controlled areas have already raised alarm internationally.
The Kurdish Struggle and DAANES
Central to the Syrian conflict are the Kurds, whose aspirations for self-determination have been systematically undermined by both Assad’s regime and regional powers like Turkey. The Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES) has emerged as a beacon of progressive governance, emphasizing gender equality, minority rights, and local autonomy. However, DAANES and its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), face existential threats.
Turkey’s actions, particularly its militarized opposition to Kurdish autonomy, underscore the challenges faced by DAANES.
Turkish forces and their allied militias have used the power vacuum created by Assad’s fall to escalate their campaign against Kurdish regions. Reports of war crimes, demographic engineering, and displacement by Turkish-backed militias further highlight the precarious situation for Syria’s Kurds and other minorities.
Turkey’s Expanding Role
Turkey’s involvement in Syria has been relentless, driven by a desire to suppress Kurdish autonomy and expand its influence. Under the guise of creating “safe zones,” Turkish operations have displaced hundreds of thousands of Kurds and facilitated demographic changes along its border with Syria. The fall of Assad has emboldened Ankara, which now seeks to solidify its control over northern Syria.
Turkey’s strategy involves leveraging Islamist factions like HTS and its proxies to achieve its goals. Despite officially labeling HTS as a terrorist group, Ankara’s operational coordination with the group and its control over allied militias reveal a pragmatic alliance. Turkey’s long-term objectives include neutralizing DAANES, resettling Syrian refugees to appease domestic pressures, and entrenching ethnic and political changes in formerly Kurdish regions.
Imperialist Strategies in Play
Syria’s tragedy is also a reflection of broader imperialist agendas. The nation’s strategic position as a crossroads for energy routes and geopolitical ambitions has turned it into a battlefield for global powers. The overthrow of Assad, while portrayed by some Western powers as a step toward freedom, aligns with long-standing efforts to secure energy dominance and counter Russia’s influence.
The U.S. and NATO’s policies, coupled with Russia’s declining role and Iran’s inability to maintain its influence, have left Syria vulnerable to exploitation. While DAANES continues to receive nominal U.S. support for its anti-ISIS efforts, this backing has proven insufficient to protect the Kurdish project from Turkish aggression or Islamist encroachment.
Israel’s Calculated Moves
Amid Syria’s chaos, Israel has pursued its own objectives, primarily aimed at curbing Iranian influence and securing its northern borders. Israeli airstrikes have targeted former Assad regime positions to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into HTS or Iranian hands. Simultaneously, Israel’s deepening occupation of Syrian territories reflects its strategy of ensuring regional dominance, further complicating Syria’s post-Assad trajectory.
Prospects for Syria’s Future
The aftermath of Assad’s fall leaves Syria at a crossroads. On one side is the authoritarian Islamist vision of HTS, and on the other, the inclusive, progressive model championed by DAANES. Yet, both face immense challenges.
HTS’s reliance on authoritarianism and its potential alliance with Turkey undermine its claims of pluralism, while DAANES struggles to defend its territories and ideals against an array of hostile forces.
For Syria to achieve lasting peace and democracy, its future must prioritize the voices of its people, particularly women, minorities, and grassroots movements. The international community has a responsibility to support these efforts, not through imperialist agendas but by empowering self-determined governance and protecting human rights.
Assad’s removal marks the end of one chapter but not the conclusion of Syria’s struggles. The nation’s path forward requires vigilance against imperialist exploitation, solidarity with progressive forces like DAANES, and unwavering commitment to the principles of justice and equality. As the dust settles, Syria’s future remains uncertain, shaped as much by its people’s resilience as by the machinations of those who seek to control its destiny.
